Is Microsoft f(l)ailing?

John Dvorak asks an interesting question: Is the party over for Microsoft? While people have been predicting the demise of Microsoft for many years, I think it may be about time to call the game. The end may in fact be nearer than we think. Of course, having something like US$30 Billion in the bank means MS won’t simply go away. They can play the losing game for years to come.

As Dvorak says in his column, Microsoft has a long history of chasing after markets created by other people. What I think he really misses is the fact that Microsoft has never had any other marketing plan. They “borrowed” the DOS model from Digital Research’s CP/M operating system. They then “borrowed” the Windows operating system from Apple. Dvorak’s list is just the continuation of the Microsoft modus operandi from the start.

The problem is, Microsoft is running out of ideas they can take from other companies. Microsoft has been bleeding money in several of these ventures. In addition, they have been caught “borrowing” so many times that competitors and government regulators are now far more likely to call them on it.

Microsoft is set for a big fall, which is odd because I think Windows 7 will be a big seller for them. I just think they have too many irons in the fire pulling them under (plenty of mixed metaphor’s there.) But they don’t understand that selling a good product and simply making it better is a valid business plan. Especially in a recession.

The Gloved One

I must admit I rediscovered Michael Jackson over the last couple of weeks. It wasn’t like I had forgotten him, his music is on my iPod and I listen to it fairly frequently. Not in front of the kids however, they’d just stare when I try to moonwalk and stumble across the floor.

Obviously, there have been a lot of us closet fans, secretly admiring the King of Pops great music while not quite being able to admit it. Crowds at his home, his memorial and around the world have proven that. I’m hear to tell you I loved Michaels music, but the Video’s that have been all over the web (and now on my iPod) are the thing I’ve rediscovered.

When asked what I thought of Michael I told someone “He was a perfectly tuned instrument for turning music into motion.” His dancing mesmerized audiences mainly because they couldn’t figure out how a human being could do those things. But he did them, and he made it look Natural.

There were a lot of things about Michael we’ll never understand how he did, but he was the soundtrack for our lives for over forty years. He was my generations Elvis, but so much bigger than Elvis his seemingly inevitable young death has impacted the entire world. That’s not to downplay Elvis’s influence, but the world moved to instant communication on a global scale as Michael grew up, and he rode the wave.

As others have said, the man in the mirror has passed through. I sincerely hope he found his peace on the other side.

Windows 7 is (not) Vista

Microsoft recently posted the final release candidate (RC) of Windows 7. This is expected to be the code that will go to manufacturers for new PC’s being sold after the October 22nd General Release.

I installed the Vista final RC back in 2006. Sadly I only used it for maybe a week. At that point I realized that “Release” was not the right term for Vista.

By now the history of Vista’s release is well documented on the web. A major change to the Hardware Driver architecture for Vista left most manufacturers scrambling at the last minute. Vista released at the end of 2006 with the final GA release in early 2007. Almost everyone who upgraded were deluged with bugs for the first half of that year. People compared Vista to Windows Me, which was not a fair comparison. The core architecture of Vista, based on the XP kernel, was very stable. As driver manufacturers caught up the news started to get out that Vista was actually a pretty good upgrade to the Windows platform.

But the damage had been done. Too many people knew someone with a bad experience. Microsoft was actually running ads that basically said “Vista isn’t as bad as you’ve heard.” Not a great way to sell a product.

Fast forward to 2009. With the bad taste of the original Vista release starting to fade, Microsoft was already promising a new Windows version which would make good on their promises for a better OS experience. Even more astounding, Windows 7 would release at the end of 2009, less than three years after Vista. Compared to the five plus years of development for Vista, Windows 7 seems to almost appear out of thin air.

And the good news is, it is a much better OS than Vista. Which is weird, because it is Vista, with a bunch of new features and fixes. Many people are calling it Vista Service Pack 3, and I would find it very difficult to argue with that view point. Windows 7 is a much better OS, but it is also Vista at it’s core which is why it is so much more stable. Rather than starting everything from scratch, Microsoft used the existing kernel and drivers and just reworked the user experience.

The key to the stability for Windows 7 is that the primary goal of the design was to make sure that “if it ran on Vista, it runs on Windows 7.” Hardware drivers that work with Vista work with Windows 7. Applications that run well on Vista run well on Windows 7.

By using the things from Vista that worked, Microsoft made sure that the new OS would have a firm foundation. By making simple but well thought out changes, they have created a product I think they can be proud to put the Windows name on.

This year you won’t see ads saying “Windows 7 isn’t as bad as you have heard.” With the release of the Release Candidate that you can use well into 2010 they have basically said, “Windows 7 is as great as people say it is, but don’t believe what you hear try it for yourself. We’ll even waive the price for the remainder of the year.”

For now I agree it is better than Vista, mainly because it isn’t trying to be something entirely different. I think that was the big mistake that Microsoft made when they tried to make a big break from XP. They forgot that XP was the most stable, and most successful Windows OS around and all the customers wanted was “a better XP.”

In a couple of days I will share my experiences with Windows 7. I’ll talk about features I like, features I am still trying to figure out, and give my predictions for the future of Windows 7.